What do you think the penetration of robotaxis would be by 2030.

A year ago, I bought the hype for self-driving cars, deluding myself into thinking that we are on the cusp for an explosion. I now think that it will be a long protracted road, just like the development of fusion power.

My optimistic prediction is that by the end of 2031, more than 1% (but less than 5%) of passenger miles would be by level 4 autonomous systems. That can cover rides to the store and perhaps social outings in relatively easy environments (for example, like Chandler, Arizona and not on busy streets). The technology has not penetrated enough for people to use level 4 cars for commutes to work or school. The technology can provide some value, but it would be limited.

One percent penetration would be 30 billion miles a year in the United States. The one percent figure would not include the miles traveled autonomously for potential Zipcars that can transport themselves to depots under easy driving conditions and to a new customer in an adjacent neighborhood, since the customer has to drive the car.

There would be a lot of pilot programs in 2030 in more difficult driving domains. Perhaps in some easy areas, self-driving cars would cost approximately $1 a mile. Still way more expensive than private car ownership per mile, but it is economical for low volume travelers. Ashley Nunes recently had a paper saying that self-driving cars would increase greenhouse emission despite him predicting that they would unlikely be cheaper than private car ownership. I envision that would be the case in an optimistic vision for 2030.

I had underestimated how difficult it is to handle dense traffic, such as near a shopping center. There was too much information for process when I reflected on a recent drive I had. While driving is relatively difficult for me, it seems that it would be more difficult for an autonomous driving system. Whatever a self-driving car can do, I can do better (if I am attentive and do not engage in risk-seeking behavior). And that is actually pathetic for self-driving cars so I do not consider myself a good driver.

“Optimistic” means I would bet even money against the prediction, if my intention was to get the high expected value from the bet. Previously, I thought there would be an outside chance for 10% penetration.

So do you think this prediction is too pessimistic? What’s your vision for 2030?

submitted by /u/AdmiralKurita
[link] [comments]

A year ago, I bought the hype for self-driving cars, deluding myself into thinking that we are on the cusp for an explosion. I now think that it will be a long protracted road, just like the development of fusion power.

My optimistic prediction is that by the end of 2031, more than 1% (but less than 5%) of passenger miles would be by level 4 autonomous systems. That can cover rides to the store and perhaps social outings in relatively easy environments (for example, like Chandler, Arizona and not on busy streets). The technology has not penetrated enough for people to use level 4 cars for commutes to work or school. The technology can provide some value, but it would be limited.

One percent penetration would be 30 billion miles a year in the United States. The one percent figure would not include the miles traveled autonomously for potential Zipcars that can transport themselves to depots under easy driving conditions and to a new customer in an adjacent neighborhood, since the customer has to drive the car.

There would be a lot of pilot programs in 2030 in more difficult driving domains. Perhaps in some easy areas, self-driving cars would cost approximately $1 a mile. Still way more expensive than private car ownership per mile, but it is economical for low volume travelers. Ashley Nunes recently had a paper saying that self-driving cars would increase greenhouse emission despite him predicting that they would unlikely be cheaper than private car ownership. I envision that would be the case in an optimistic vision for 2030.

I had underestimated how difficult it is to handle dense traffic, such as near a shopping center. There was too much information for process when I reflected on a recent drive I had. While driving is relatively difficult for me, it seems that it would be more difficult for an autonomous driving system. Whatever a self-driving car can do, I can do better (if I am attentive and do not engage in risk-seeking behavior). And that is actually pathetic for self-driving cars so I do not consider myself a good driver.

“Optimistic” means I would bet even money against the prediction, if my intention was to get the high expected value from the bet. Previously, I thought there would be an outside chance for 10% penetration.

So do you think this prediction is too pessimistic? What’s your vision for 2030?

submitted by /u/AdmiralKurita
[link] [comments]A year ago, I bought the hype for self-driving cars, deluding myself into thinking that we are on the cusp for an explosion. I now think that it will be a long protracted road, just like the development of fusion power. My optimistic prediction is that by the end of 2031, more than 1% (but less than 5%) of passenger miles would be by level 4 autonomous systems. That can cover rides to the store and perhaps social outings in relatively easy environments (for example, like Chandler, Arizona and not on busy streets). The technology has not penetrated enough for people to use level 4 cars for commutes to work or school. The technology can provide some value, but it would be limited. One percent penetration would be 30 billion miles a year in the United States. The one percent figure would not include the miles traveled autonomously for potential Zipcars that can transport themselves to depots under easy driving conditions and to a new customer in an adjacent neighborhood, since the customer has to drive the car. There would be a lot of pilot programs in 2030 in more difficult driving domains. Perhaps in some easy areas, self-driving cars would cost approximately $1 a mile. Still way more expensive than private car ownership per mile, but it is economical for low volume travelers. Ashley Nunes recently had a paper saying that self-driving cars would increase greenhouse emission despite him predicting that they would unlikely be cheaper than private car ownership. I envision that would be the case in an optimistic vision for 2030. I had underestimated how difficult it is to handle dense traffic, such as near a shopping center. There was too much information for process when I reflected on a recent drive I had. While driving is relatively difficult for me, it seems that it would be more difficult for an autonomous driving system. Whatever a self-driving car can do, I can do better (if I am attentive and do not engage in risk-seeking behavior). And that is actually pathetic for self-driving cars so I do not consider myself a good driver. “Optimistic” means I would bet even money against the prediction, if my intention was to get the high expected value from the bet. Previously, I thought there would be an outside chance for 10% penetration. So do you think this prediction is too pessimistic? What’s your vision for 2030? submitted by /u/AdmiralKurita [link] [comments]r/SelfDrivingCars



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What do you think the penetration of robotaxis would be by 2030.

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